Despite edging higher to 1.0852 last week, AUD/USD failed to sustain gains and settled back inside established range. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading could be seen. But near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.0597 support holds. Above 1.0852 will extend the whole rise from 0.9663 to retest 1.1079 high. However, break of 1.0597 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed. In such case, deeper fall should be see back to 1.0377 resistance turned support. Break there will indicate that another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 has started and should target 0.9663 support and below.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.