The stronger than expected rise from 0.8315 indicates that rally from 0.8066 is not finished yet. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise would probably be seen to 0.8858 and above. On the downside, below 0.8621 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8315. Break will target retest on 0.8066 low.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 days EMA in AUD/USD revives the case that pull back from 0.9380 is finished at 0.8066. Break of 0.8858 will target a test on 0.9380 high. But we'd expect stronger resistance below there to bring another fall to continue medium term consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.8315 will revive the case that correction from 0.9380 is extending towards 0.7702 key support.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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