AUD/USD breached 0.8858 resistance last week and reached 0.8870 but failed to sustain gain there. Friday's break of 0.8682 minor support argues that rise from 0.8315 is completed. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside for lower trend line support (now at 0.8415). Also, note that that the choppy nature of the price actions from 0.8066 suggests that it's merely a correction to fall from 0.9380. Break of 0.8315 will indicate that such decline is resuming for another low below 0.8066. On the upside, above 0.8870 will bring another rise towards 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation.

In the bigger picture, note that a medium term top is in place at 0.9404. Price actions from there are viewed as consolidation/correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Such consolidation/correction will continue below 0.9404 for a while and the path could be choppy and unpredictable. Though, note that a break of 0.8315 will argue that such correction is going to extend deeper to beyond 0.8066 support, possibly to 0.7702 key support.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.