AUD/USD's choppy rise from 0.8066 extended further last week and reached as high as 0.8969. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, below 0.8859 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8632 will argue that AUD/USD might have topped out and flip back to the downside for 0.8315 support instead.

In the bigger picture, note that a medium term top is in place at 0.9404. Price actions from there are viewed as consolidation/correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Such consolidation/correction will continue below 0.9404 for a while and the path could be choppy and unpredictable. Though, note that a break of 0.8315 will argue that such correction is going to extend deeper to beyond 0.8066 support, possibly to 0.7702 key support.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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