AUD/USD trended well inside the near term falling channel last week. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.0557 resistance holds and current decline from 1.0852 should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9663 to 1.0852 at 1.0117 next. Fall from 1.0852 is viewed as another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 has started at 1.0852 and should target 0.9663 support and below.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.