AUD/USD climbed further to as high as 0.9220 last week even though it continued to lose upside momentum, as seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further rise should still be seen as long as 0.9067 minor support holds. Current strong rebound from 0.8066 could extend further towards 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.9067 will suggest that AUD/USD has made a short term top already and turn focus to 0.8904 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, note that a medium term top is in place at 0.9404. Price actions from there are viewed as consolidation/correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Such consolidation/correction will continue below 0.9404 for a while and the path could be choppy and unpredictable. Though, note that a break of 0.8315 will argue that such correction is going to extend deeper to beyond 0.8066 support, possibly to 0.7702 key support.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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