AUD/USD's sharp fall last week indicates that a short term top is at least in place at 0.9220 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Risk will now remain on the downside as long as 0.9220 holds and we expect another fall after finishing the consolidation from 0.8913. Below 0.8913 will target lower channel support (now at 0.8642). Further break there will indicate that whole choppy rise from 0.8066 is finished too and deeper decline should be seen to retest this support level next.

In the bigger picture, note that a medium term top is in place at 0.9404. Price actions from there are viewed as consolidation/correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Such consolidation/correction will continue below 0.9404 for a while and the path could be choppy and unpredictable. Though, firstly, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance neat to 0.9404 to limit upside and bring another fall to continue the consolidation. Secondly, a break of 0.8315 will suggest that the whole correction is going to extend deeper to beyond 0.8066 support, possibly to 0.7702 key support.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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