ADU/USD's recovery was limited at 0.9078 last week and fall from 0.9220 resumed and dipped to as low as 0.8840. A temporary low is formed there and some consolidations would be seen initially this week first. But upside is expected to be limited below 0.9078 resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.8840 will target lower channel support (now at 0.8710). As noted before, decisive break there will indicate that whole choppy rise from 0.8066 is finished too and deeper decline should be seen to retest this support level next. On the upside, however, break of 0.9078 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.9220 is finished and the three wave structure will in turn suggest that another high above 0.9220 would be seen before AUD/USD tops.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price actions from 0.9404 are consolidations/correction to medium term up trend from 0.6008. Rebound from 0.8066 is treated as the second leg inside such consolidation. Hence even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance neat to 0.9404 to limit upside and bring another fall to continue the consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.8315 support will suggest that whole correction is going to extend deeper to beyond 0.8066 support, possibly to 0.7702 key support before completion.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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