AUD/USD stayed in tight range below 1.0452 last week and more sideway trading could be seen. However, note that firstly, choppy sideway trading from 1.0452 suggests that rebound from 1.0225 is not over. Secondly, with daily MACD staying above signal line, 1.0225 could be a short term bottom. Hence, stronger rise is anticipated this week and break of 1.0452 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.0852 to 1.0225 at 1.0612 next. Though, below 1.0308 will likely send AUD/USD through 1.0225 low to extend the fall from 1.0852.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. The corrective price action from 0.9387 suggests that it's the second leg of the consolidation. This second leg could be finished with three waves up to 1.0852 or could be a five wave triangle with another rise. In both case, another medium term fall is anticipated below the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 finishes. Below 1.0225 will suggest that the third leg has already started and should target 0.9663 and below. Above 1.0636 will bring another rise to 1.0852/1079 zone and then start the third leg down.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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