AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 28 2012 9:50 AM

AUD/USD's strong rebound and break of 1.0452 resistance last week suggests that fall from 1.0852 is already completed at 1.0225 already. Initial bias is on the upside this week for cluster level at 61.8% retracement of 1.0852 to 1.0225 at 1.0612, 161.8% projection of 1.0225 to 1.0425 from 1.0246 at 1.0613. Decisive break there will confirm this case and target 1.0852 and above. On the downside, though, below 1.0352 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0225 instead.

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In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. The corrective price action from 0.9387 suggests that it's the second leg of the consolidation. This second leg could be finished with three waves up to 1.0852 or could be a five wave triangle with another rise. In both case, another medium term fall is anticipated below the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 finishes. Below 1.0225 will suggest that the third leg has already started and should target 0.9663 and below. Above 1.0636 will bring another rise to 1.0852/1079 zone and then start the third leg down.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.