AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 05 2012 4:08 PM

AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.0225 completed with three waves to 1.0473 and last week's break of 1.0225 confirmed resumption of whole decline from 1.0852. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 1.0086 first and then 100% projection at 0.9846. On the upside, above 1.0277 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery would be limited well below 1.0473 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggest that the third leg has started at 1.0852 and deeper decline would now be seen to 0.9387/9663 support zone. Though, strong support is expected from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 1.0473 will dampen this bearish view and bring another rise to extend the rebound from 0.9387 to 1.0852/1079 zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.