AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.9588 last week as the fall from 1.0852 extended 0.9633 support is already met but there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias will remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.0852 to 1.0225 from 1.0473 at 0.9459 next. At this moment, we're expecting strong support above medium term level at 0.9387 to continue downside, at least on first attempt. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal on next fall. Meanwhile break of 0.9897 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and should bring rebound back to 1.0225 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, with the fall from 1.0852 as the third leg. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.9387/9663 support zone to contain downside and bring rebound to extend the consolidation pattern. Above 1.0225 will indicate that fall from 1.0852 is finished and turn outlook bullish for a test on 1.0852/1079 resistance zone. However, note that sustained break of 0.9387 support will open up a few medium term bearish scenarios that could trigger selloff back to 0.8066 support.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.