AUD/USD jumped to as high as high as 1.0001 last week but failed to stay above parity and retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Rebound from 0.9588 is still viewed as a correction only and focus will be on 0.9802 minor support. Break will indicate that such correction is finished and should flip bias back to the downside and send AUD/USD through 0.9588 towards 0.9387. However, above 1.0001 will argue that whole decline from 1.0852 is already finished and should brig stronger rise through 61.8% retracement of 1.0473 to 0.9588 at 1.0135. to 1.0225.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, with the fall from 1.0852 as the third leg. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.9387/9663 support zone to contain downside and bring rebound to extend the consolidation pattern. Above 1.0225 will confirm that fall from 1.0852 is finished and turn outlook bullish for a test on 1.0852/1079 resistance zone. However, note that sustained break of 0.9387 support will open up a few medium term bearish scenarios that could trigger selloff back to 0.8066 support.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.