AUD/USD's rise from 0.9588 extended further to as high as 1.0223 last week but faced strong resistance from 1.0225 and formed a short term top. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for pull back towards 0.9820. Also, note that with 1.0225 intact, there is no confirmation of completion of the fall from 1.0852 yet. Break of 0.9820 will indeed push AUD/USD through another low below 0.9588. Meanwhile, as discussed before, decisive break of 1.0225 will confirm completion of whole fall from 1.0852 at 0.9588. In such case, stronger rally could be seen through 1.0473 resistance to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0742).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9588 might be the fourth leg inside the consolidation pattern, which could be a triangle. Break of 1.0225 will target upper trend line (now at 1.0742) but strong resistance should be seen there to bring at least one more fall. After all, firstly, break of 1.0852 is needed to signal larger up trend resumption or more consolidative trading could be seen. Secondly, any downside attempt would likely be contained by 0.9387/9663 support zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.