AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

   on June 30 2012 3:12 PM

AUD/USD's break of 1.0223/5 last week indicates that rise from 0.9588 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rally. Note that sustained trading above 1.0225 will also confirm completion of whole fall from 1.0852 at 0.9588. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.9588 to 1.0233 from 0.9968 at 1.0360 first and then 100% projection at 1.0603 next. On the downside, break of 0.9968 support is needed to indicate completion of such rise. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9588 might be the fourth leg inside the consolidation pattern, which could be a triangle. Sustained break of 1.0225 will target upper trend line (now at 1.0740) but strong resistance should be seen there to bring at least one more fall. After all, firstly, break of 1.0852 is needed to signal larger up trend resumption or more consolidative trading could be seen. Secondly, any downside attempt would likely be contained by 0.9387/9663 support zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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