AUD/USD surged to as high as 1.0328 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But downside should be contained by 0.9968 support and bring another rise. As noted before, fall from 1.0852 should have finished at 0.9588 already. Above 1.0328 will target upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0717) next. However, break of 0.9968 support will argue that rebound from 0.9588 is completed and will bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9588 might be the fourth leg inside the consolidation pattern, which could be a triangle. Sustained break of 1.0225 will target upper trend line (now at 1.0717) but strong resistance should be seen there to bring at least one more fall. After all, firstly, break of 1.0852 is needed to signal larger up trend resumption or more consolidative trading could be seen. Secondly, any downside attempt would likely be contained by 0.9387/9663 support zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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