AUD/USD jumped further to as high as 1.0580 last week but continued to face resistance form near term channel resistance, which limits its rally. Further rise will remain in favor in near term. However, we'd also like to point out that AUD/USD should face even stronger resistance some upper trend line (now at 1.0685). Hence, we'll now stay neutral. Break of 1.0435 minor support will flip bias back to the downside, and further break of 1.0176 will confirm near term reversal. Though, sustain trading above the upper trend line will pave the way to retest 1.1079 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9588 is the fourth leg inside the consolidation pattern, which could be a triangle. Strong resistance should be seen from the upper trend line to bring at least one more fall. After all, firstly, break of 1.0852 is needed to signal larger up trend resumption or more consolidative trading could be seen. Secondly, any downside attempt would likely be contained by 0.9387/9663 support zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

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