AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD edged higher to 1.0612 last week but continued to lost momentum and retreated sharply. However, the strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA argues that AUD/USD is not ready to reverse yet. Nonetheless, overall outlook remains unchanged. That is, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from upper trend line to bring reversal eventually. Hence we'll stay neural for the moment. Break of 1.0436 minor support will indicate that AUD/USD has finally topped and will bring decline to 1.0176 support for confirmation. Though, sustain trading above the upper trend line will pave the way to retest 1.1079 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.9588 is the fourth leg inside the consolidation pattern, which could be a triangle. Strong resistance should be seen from the upper trend line to bring at least one more fall. After all, firstly, break of 1.0852 is needed to signal larger up trend resumption or more consolidative trading could be seen. Secondly, any downside attempt would likely be contained by 0.9387/9663 support zone.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.