Despite diving to as low as 1.0165 and breached 1.0176 support, AUD/USD staged a strong rebound from there. Initial bias is on the upside this week and current rally could extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.0612 to 1.0165 at 1.0441 and possibly above. But we'll be cautiously on reversal signal ahead of 1.0612 resistance. On the downside, below 1.0276 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0165 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. Fall from 1.0612 could be the fifth and final leg in this pattern. No change in these views. The question now is whether such decline from 1.0612 is finished at 1.0165 already and we'd slightly favored that it's not. That is, we'd expect another decline to 0.9968 support and below ahead. Though, break of 1.0612 resistance will be the first signal of larger up trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.0852 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.