Outlook in AUD/USD has turned mixed after hitting 1.0624. On the one hand, the pair faced strong resistance from the medium term falling trendline struggled to extend recent rally. On the other hand, the pair was supported by broad based weakness in dollar and there was no sustained selling. We'd stay neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0624 will confirm rally resumption for 1.0852 key resistance and would have some larger bullish implication. Break of 1.0165 will bring another decline inside the medium term consolidation pattern but strong support should be seen well above 0.9588 key level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. Such consolidation should be near to completion even though it's uncertain whether it's finished at 1.0165 yet. After all, break of 1.0852 resistance will indicate that the larger up trend is resuming and would pave the way to another high above 1.1079. On the downside, any decline should be contained well above 0.9588 key support level.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
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