AUD/USD took out 1.1011 to resume long term up trend last week and made new record high at 1.1079 before making a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations would be seen. But even in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0789 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection 0.9703 to 1.1011 at 1.0390 at 1.1198 next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. Such up trend should now target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462. On the downside, Break of 1.0390 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Or we'll stay bullish in AUD/USD.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. AUD/USD is starting to show loss of upside momentum with weekly MACD crossed below signal line and there is possibility of bearish divergence condition too. Nevertheless we'd still prefer to see at least sustained trading below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0055) before considering long term reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.1084 would likely pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.