AUD/USD's rally continued last week and extended further to as high as 0.9268 before retreating. The break of 0.9150 minor support indicates that a short term top might be in place with bearish divergence conditioning 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and further pull back should be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9053) first. Sustained trading below will target 0.8567/8857 support zone next. But strong support should be seen there (with 23.6% retracement of 0.6284 to 0.9268 at 0.8564) and bring conditions in On the upside, though, break of 0.9268 will bring rally resumption to 100% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.9756 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 0.9 psychological level indicates that AUD/USD is regaining upside momentum after drawing support from the medium term rising trend line a few times. As long as this trend line support holds, rise from 0.6284 is still in progress and could extend further to retest 08 high of 0.9849. On the downside, a break of 0.8567 support will have the trend line support firmly taken out and will in turn indicate that a medium term top is formed. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 0.7702/8262 support zone before resuming the up trend.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD