AUD/USD edged higher to 0.9326 last week but lost momentum since then and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a break of 0.9111 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and further fall should be seen to 0.8857 resistance turned support first. However, note that there is no confirmation of topping yet as long as 0.9111 support holds and AUD/USD might still extend recent rally towards 100% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.9756.

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 0.6284 is still in progress and could extend further to 100% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.9756 and possibly further to retest 0.9849 high. Nevertheless, break of 0.8567 support will have the trend line support firmly taken out and will in turn indicate that a medium term top is formed. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 0.7702/8262 support zone before resuming the up trend.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD