AUD/USD edged lower to 0.8915 last week but few strong support from medium term channel and rebounded. The break of 0.9180 resistance argue that the choppy correction from 0.9326 has completed. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test of 0.9326 high first. On the downside, below 0.9022 will indicate that rebound from 0.8915 has completed and will flip intraday to bias to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from the channel support, as well as the choppy corrective look of the fall from 0.9326, both suggest that medium term rally is still in progress despite loss of upside moment. Break of 0.9326 will bring rally resumption towards 0.9849 long term high next. On the downside, sustained trading below the channel support (now at 0.8970) will in turn indicate that AUD/USD has topped out in medium term and should bring deep pull back to 0.7702/8262 support zone.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD