AUD/USD edged to new 2009 high of 0.9368 last week but lost some momentum since then. Nevertheless, subsequent retreat was contained by 4 hours 55 EMA and AUD/USD rebounded strongly. The development argues that recent rally in AUD/USD is not over yet. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Break of 0.9368 will bring rally resumption to 100% projection of 0.6284 to 0.8262 from 0.7702 at 0.9680. On the downside, below 0.9209 will indicate that pull back from 0.9368 is still in progress and flip intraday bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indication of completion of medium term rise from 0.6008 yet. Such rally could still extend further to retest 0.9849 high next. However, sustained trading below the channel support (now at 0.9036) will be first signal of reversal. Further break of 0.8915 will complete a double top reversal pattern (0.9326, 0.9368) and in such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.7702/8262 support zone.

In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD

AUD/USD