AUD/USD dipped further to 0.9013 last week but was contained above 0.8945 support and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9013. However, risk should remain on the downside as long as 0.9321 resistance holds and we'd continue to prefer the bearish case that AUD/USD has topped out in medium term already. Below 0.9013 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8945 support first. Further break there will confirm this case and target 100% projection of 0.9404 to 0.8945 from 0.9321 at 0.8862 next.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we're still slightly preferring the bearish case that medium term rise from 0.6008 has completed at 0.9404 already, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. This is supported with weekly MACD crossed below signal line. Break of 0.8945 support will confirm this case by completing a head and shoulder top (ls: 0.9326, h: 0.9404, rs: 0.9321). In such case, sizeable correction should be seen to 0.7702/0.8626 support zone but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9321 resistance will indicate that fall form 0.9404 has completed. The corrective three wave structure will indicate that AUD/USD's up trend is not completed yet and medium term rally from 0.6008 is still in progress for 0.9849 high.
In the longer term picture, as noted before, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
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