The Aussie/USD may well be running out of steam on the topside.. We have been grinding higher, and reached 1.0615. The past few days has seen the Aussie make a top, and yet there are still the bullish sentiment from dealers.. If you stand back a bit and look at the Aussie, the break below 1.0500 was significant...It pulled the Aussie like a yo-yo, and all trades are based around 1.0500...

If above, traders bought, if below, they sold...So you see that over a period of days this became the norm...That was until the stochastic s turned bearish.. Taking a step back, as I do, I can see the picture unfold on the charts, and this one is looking like a running out of steam market, trying so hard to make a break above 1.0615, and failing.. Currently we are being held by the 21day moving average, but I expect this to break soon, and for the market to tumble lower, below trend line support at 1.0440 and head lower to 1.0370. This weakness should happen quickly, so be careful...Sell into strength, even if we trade back above 1.0570..The pattern is bearish, the stochastic are bearish, the weekly charts are beginning to turn, so it is only a matter of time before we see the Aussie break to 1.0370...

Good Luck...

Carol Harmer

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