Australian dollar outlook 04/5/2010

Australia: The Australian Dollar is trading under USD0.9300 following Sunday's proposed tax changes by Australia's Federal Government, and yesterday's decision out of China, when it instructed banks to increase capital ratios in a bid to slow lending. These two factors saw our AUD being sold and it remained that way in last night's offshore session. China's decision to ensure Bank's hold more funds in reserve is the third such increase this year alone, and is designed purely to stifle new lending amid fears of a property bubble and an overheating economy. AUD/EUR is around 0.7000, AUD/JPY near 87.00 and AUD/GBP is still slightly over 0.6000. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd defended the centrepiece of his taxation reform package, the 40% tax on mining profits, which he announced will be used to pay for a cut in company tax and a range of superannuation measures. Local interest rates reacted to the news out of China, Greece and Australia yesterday, with the 90-day bank bill rate at 4.66%, up from Friday' close of 4.60%. The yield on the Commonwealth Government April 2020 bond is 5.78%. The conundrums that are our economy against many (most) major economies continues too after the release of data showing continued strong growth in house prices and an expansion in manufacturing activity at its fastest pace in nearly eight years, very interesting ahead of the RBA decision today. It is being surmised the announcement of Greece's rescue package may indeed weaken the case for hold with the RBA's decision today. We're not so sure. We feel there'll be a hold decision pre Federal Budget next week. Our forecast range for AUD/USD is 0.9210 to 0.9325.