Oats futures followed the grains sector sharply lower in Thursday's trading, as continued bloodletting in the global equity markets dragged all commodities lower. While the more heavily traded row crop futures such as wheat and corn remain in erratic and large trading ranges, the oats futures show a very orderly technical breakout from a Triangle chart pattern.
The Triangle formed over the course of 42 240-minute bars on the longer term chart shown here, with a sharp break of support occurring at the $3.42 per bushel level on strong momentum.
This break set the forecast for a lower trading range to come, and the market moved considerably closer to that range going into Thursday's close. The projected minimum price target remains lower near $3.32 per bushel with the bottom end of the forecast seen at $3.22 should the momentum persist.
The duration of the pattern combined with the underlying strength of the sell-off suggests this move lower may start a prolonged downtrend in this market, leaving the Triangle chart pattern a long term top for the price to move away from.
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