The country faces an appreciable risk of recession, but another round of quantitative easing is not a done deal, Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said on Friday.
My sense is output is broadly flat. I wouldn't want to put a percentage number of the risk of another recession but I think it wouldn't be foolish to say that it's quite appreciable, Weale said at an event hosted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
However, the Bank's credibility was at stake if it did not take the time to ensure that inflation was falling as forecast before approving another round of QE, he added.
If we ... run the risk of taking further chances with our credibility -- rather than waiting to see that inflation does actually drop down sharply -- then I can see a strong case for saying that we ought to wait and see, Weale said.
Weale continued that he saw no good reason why the Bank could not extend the range of government debt it purchased to include index-linked bonds if it expanded QE.
In a speech before the question and answer session, Weale said that there was a strong case for more quantitative easing once the current round of purchases was complete, but it partly hinged on inflation starting to fall.
(Reporting by Olesya Dmitracova, writing by David Milliken)