When a market is rising, why would anyone think we were going to reverse direction?

Well as a Technical Trader and Chartist it is my job to look at the markets objectively and to be aware of a possible reversal. So I have waited until I am as sure as I can be before sending this out. We made a top at 1419 on the 27th March, fell to 1262 4th June and have spent all that time grinding higher. We have not been able to achieve 1419 again, and the market is turning bearish from the oscillators I use. As we know markets do look their strongest when they are about to turn, and I feel this is the case with the S&P. I believe we can lose ground from this point and move lower towards 1300. This would be a classic Double Top scenario and even 1300 may not hold the downside. I know I am going out on a limb here, but unless we can break and close above 1419 we are going to see this market fall by a possible 100 points. This should happen quite quickly, as the market is thin and it will only take a few large sellers to come into the market and they will leave the Bulls standing in wonderment, and then having no choice but to reverse longs, adding to the bearish sentiment that will come into S&P..

Regards Carol Harmer

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