The calendar may not show anything from the Fed today, but if you only watch what's official, you may be caught unawares by some major movement.

I'm referring to the fact that Ben Bernanke is speaking today in Washington. According to Bloomberg he will give fresh clues to the Fed's thinking, and many are even speculating he'll give hints toward a half a percentage point rate cut.

This is very important, because last time Bernanke gave this speech in Washington was Nov 29, 2007, and it sparked a major rally for the dollar. Check out the chart below, and note the date of the last speech: