Which Is The Best Strategy In The World?
People are constantly looking for magical systems that make them to be right over 70% or 80% of the time. But one can lose in the long run with 80% accurate system, and indeed, there are those who have made fortunes with only 30% – 40% accurate systems.
Think of any strategy in the world – whether manual or automated, whether technical or fundamental, whether complicated or simple, whether spiritual or temporal, and whether trend-following or counter-trend. You may even combine 100 different strategies together. Make the best trading analysis and decision in the world, and then place your order. What next?
The chance that the market will move in your favor is still 50%. No-one has influence on this figure. Honestly, it’s a wining streak that gives an illusion of over 50% accuracy; just like the tossing of a coin may give you heads more than tails several times. There’ll still be periods when tails will prevail over the heads in a row. This is a period of disillusionment. The key to survival is to gain more during wining periods than you lose during the losing periods.
But where are numerous traders dwelling in the Garden of Eden Fantasy? It’s due to marketers. They tell people what they want to hear instead of what is the truth. Unfortunately, what people want to hear don’t improve any statistics. A chief marketer told me in the year 2008 that if you don’t tell lies, nobody will buy your products. No wonder online trading is so scandalous. I beg to differ; I’d prefer to announce the challenge in doing something, and then assure them there’s a solution.
People understand that entries are probabilistic things, and then quickly forget that so are exits. I don’t know any other way one can win in the long run without low risk and running winners and aborting losers.
If you think otherwise, wait for a few years and I bet you’ll agree with me. Experience is still the best teacher, especially if we fail to learn from others.
Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach
NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.
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