While volume has been poor, the market has put on the best 2 day rally since the beginning of February. For the cynical, this has been the best quarter end mark up in quite a long time. For those who have been around a while, you know by now that the old rules of volume confirming moves has been thrown out for much of the rally since March 2009. In the new paradigm, big rallies on light volume are the rule, while most selloffs now come on heavy volume. It's strange ... and suspect... but seems to be the new normal.
As the Greeks go to vote to accept more money that they will never pay back this morning, futures are surging once again and bulls have a great chance to push the S&P 500 over key resistance at 1300 and 1303. We will see if there is any sell the news reaction once the vote actually comes in, but for now the bulls have taken the ball as much of Wall Street is in early holiday mode.
Lost in the focus on Greece, is a very good industrial number out of Japan. For those of us who believe a fix to the supply chain in Japan should help the economic figures a few months from now in the U.S., this should bode well circa August or so. One wonders if the auto sector is going to get a nice bounce in the coming weeks/months.
- Japanese factory output made its biggest jump in May in almost 60 years, as manufacturers restored supply chains damaged by the earthquake and tsunami in March. The data provided the latest evidence that the economy was headed for a “V-shaped” recovery from the disaster.
- Industrial output rose 5.7 percent in May, above the median market forecast for a 5.5 percent increase and a 1.6 percent gain in April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Wednesday. It was the second-biggest increase on record, after a 7.9 percent rise in March 1953.
- Automakers led the overall increase, with the output of transport machinery up a hefty 36.4 percent as they quickly mended supply chains hit by the quake. But the output of chips and other electronic parts fell 0.6 percent, a sign that the recovery was still patchy.