The data out today opposed all expectations giving the dollar what it needs to continue yesterday's so called 'correction' in the markets!!
Durable goods orders for the month of April slightly fell to -0.5 percent from March's -0.3 percent reading yet the good sign was that it was much better than the anticipated 1.5 percent drop. As for the durable orders excluding transportation, orders jumped 2.5 percent marking the biggest gain since July 2007, from the previous 1.5 percent gain and the expected 0.5 percent fall.
Analysts expected further decline in durable goods because of the surging energy prices that just kept adding inflationary pressures on the backs of the economy and diminished consumer's confidence in their economy as they just kept on seeing instability and continuous disturbance in the markets.
With summer driving season just around the corner and gasoline prices sky rocketing, just how much transportation equipment is expected to be ordered? It would make no sense to see a climb in transportation and the weakness was just evident in April where transportation orders plunged 8.0 percent after falling 5.1 percent in March. Aircrafts, which are very volatile, also dropped 24.4 percent.
However, strength in other sectors offset the negative impact of durables involved with energy products. Electrical equipment, appliance and components orders leaped 27.8 percent reversing from a previous 18.9 percent plummet in March. Defense capital goods and orders for machinery both rose 4.8 percent and 4.2 percent respectively in April. Shipments of durable goods rose 1.2 percent, of computers rose 4.3 percent and of primary metals rose 2.4 percent.
Another good sign was that inventories shrunk to show only a 0.5 percent gain in April compared to the previous 1.0 percent rise the prior month. With inventories decreasing, this could be a sign for an increase in production but this definitely can't be taken for granted especially after the sinking confidence seen in yesterday's data.
Just how good will orders for May be when consumer confidence hit a 16 year low? It