I need to start thinking in complete inverse here, if only I had been long Capital One Financial (COF) - the stock gapped up another 20%... I said facetiously if not $20, why not $25. So I suppose if not $25 why not $35. Every $5 I am going to add a bigger swatch. I am up to about a 5% short position and will take this to 15% if we get up to $45-$50.
I love the stress test; now the government says instead of converting preferred to common which the banks protested, they will now allow to convert preferred to convertible preferred ... this is so laughable at this point. Banana Republic. Whatever the banks ask for, they get.
As I said yesterday I am now going to get deeper on the short side with upside targets of S&P 950-975. The closer we get the higher I'll go into the short end. There is now complete and utter complacency on the long side just as there was on the short side 2 months ago. Wake up every morning, go long and win.
p.s. if you want to see other workings of the invisible hand check out futures at midnight versus 8:00AM forward. I have been watching this over the past year, and the past month if you bought futures at midnight and sold at 9:35 AM I think the success rate is 80%+. Many days it nets you 1-2%. Because there is such a rush by someone to bid up futures in the morning day after day, after week after week. Apparently the normal market hours are not long enough for someone and he/she needs to buy futures furiously every morning. I wonder whom.
p.s.s. on a quite related note, I saw a report yesterday on Bloomberg that Goldman Sachs (GS) which now is doing about 20% of all trading volume recently, only had 8 days they lost money in their trading operation in the entire first quarter. Thats >80% win percentage . Apparently the traders on their desk are of a level no other desk has... clearly the idiots at Morgan Stanley (MS) have no skill. See, when you are the one who has a big hand in which way the market goes each day, you tend to win a lot. See Banana Republic comment above.
Short Capital One Financial in fund and personal account