I personally think it is pathetic the entire market, with all these trillions of dollars, sophisticated computer systems, and PhDs galore has become nothing more than a 1st grade math equation
but this is the monster we've created... thanks HAL9000. The weak dollar trade is sickening in how crowded it is but I said that 3 weeks ago, 7 weeks ago, etc. Long technology was crowded in fall 1999, didn't stop it from continuing as a gold mine for another 6 months. As we've said, when everyone is on one side of the boat it is fine and dandy, until we fall into the ocean. So it's a game of chicken for those who continue to play it. But knowing when it reverses is of course the $64,000 questions (inflation adjusted it's really the $3,000 question - trust me, that was a funny joke to economic geeks like me)
I am selling almost all of the remaining BHP Billiton (BHP) here in the mid $72s... it was as high as $75 this morning as the dollar took its traditional beating so it would of nice to have caught the top but due to having limited long positions I was just letting it ride. However, since we are SO overdue for at least a few day rally in the pig (with lipstick on) that is the US dollar I'll take almost all the rest off here, and see if we can get our cost basis lowered. Commodity based stocks, in particular, would get trashed if the dollar rallies.
Specific to BHP there is a flagrant gap at $69ish where we'll get back part of our stake... and yet another at $65 which would be a nicer place to re-engage. Caveat: BHP is a very 'gappy' stock, since it is Australian based and tends to gap open (up or down) often - so the gaps mean less in this chart than most. You can see tons of gaps (hello $63) all over the place.
If the dollar turns back down after this hour of glory... well, that (those) gap (s) will have to be filled some other time.
In the bigger picture this is my great worry for sometime in 2010 when the bond market most likely will force Kool Aid provider Ben Bernanke to at least begin hinting of raising rates in 2011. This market (and economy) is addicted to easy money... when even the first hints of tightening appear the dollar should rally and you can see in just 1 hour today what happens in that scenario. Just imagine if the dollar rallies (heaven forbid) for 3-4 weeks straight.
Long BHP Billiton in fund; no personal position