We've bounced off the 20 day moving average (once again) repeating the pattern of the past 10 weeks - until it stops working, play the pattern. 1.5% more to go, and last week never happened... S&P 930 were our highs from 2 weeks back so that should prove to be the next testing point on the upside. Today we seem to be stuck at S&P 915 on the upside - not sure why. North of S&P 930 and we should make an assault on the 200 day moving average... (just over S&P 960)
I am going to take some profits on recent purchases that I made into the correction last week - I might switch back on EXM as it could be beginning a new breakout but for now I cut it. Not major sales here, about 15-20% of each stake.
- Excel Maritime (EXM)
- Gafisa (GFA)
- Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
- Meritage Homes (MTH)
- Research in Motion (RIMM)
- Mosaic (MOS)
As I pointed out in the weekly summary, agriculture continues to be the hot theme of the past 2 weeks. All the other charts ex Mosaic are quite similar - much like the S&P 500, they retraced to a support level where you take the leap of faith and buy, and now bounced smartly. Of course if there had been no bounce you'd have to cut losses quickly as that would indicate much more downside - but this time it worked. Hopefully India can have a new election every 2nd week and we can push these world indexes to all time highs by Labor Day.