I am beginning the oft mentioned Priceline.com (PCLN) today around $102... the 20 day moving average is around $99 but I am watching so many things I tend to lose track of stocks of interest if they are not on my sheets... so I am just going to start with a 0.4% stake hoping for a larger pullback.
- Gasfisa (GFA)
- BHP Billiton (BHP)
- Mosaic (MOS) <--- very strong of late, I added to this Monday as well
- Atwood Oceanics (ATW)
- Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)
We are at sort of a crossroads here - the government is doing everything in their power to reinflate the economy and cause consumers not to act in their own self interest. The news flow today was about weaker then expected retail sales and people act shocked. As always it is not the news but the reaction to the news... I don't think the news really was much better the past 2 months but we've rocketed off it. Much of the data has bottomed or improved slightly off 30, 50, 70 year lows. The irony is the news is not different, just the knee jerk reactions... we never know from week to week what will matter.
Again my belief is best case scenario Ben Bernanke pushes us into a horrific form of stagflation -worse than the 1970s and early 1980s because workers in America have no bargaining power unlike those in that time frame, many of which received wage increases that to some degree tracked inflation. The consumer remains toast under any scenario - we are squeezing blood out of stone; the US consumer balance sheet is horrific but still we press them to spend and borrow.
Why am I buying then? Because until / unless I am proven right AND the market chooses to recognize it heck we could go to all time highs like we did in October 2007 when the Oracle that is the all knowing market was at all time highs. We are all slaves to charts as momentum trading is the name of the game and jumping from sector to sector is how to make mad money. This rogue Federal Reserve will keep pushing out liquidity until people cry uncle. And we'll call it green shoots. When does higher oil prices go from green shoot to oppressive? I truly hope we find out by Labor Day if my hopes come true and gas is back to $3.50. Then maybe people will ask questions about what exactly our policies are - because unless its explicitly obvious in day to day life, no one seems to care. If in this horrific economy you can bust natural gas up 20% in a week, you really need to ask what is going on. I ask you take a close look at the grocery store - I am actually bamboozled by what I am seeing. But really food is discretionary so who cares if prices continue to go up... and really if oil is worth $60 in the worst global recesssion since the 1930s I am sure everything will be fine when the economy recovers.
But it's all about squiggly lines on charts since Main Street is just something to read about in newspapers and has nothing to do with the stock market. So until this market breaks the little blue line below, and perhaps even the red one I am going to try my hand at what a typical mutual fund manager does - just buy, enjoy the ups, ignore the down days, speak of staying in the game and approve heartily of all actions by government as long as it makes the Oracle like market go up.
Every dip is a buying opportunity and I will ignore Main Street since green shoots abound.... in foreclosed homes. I will be buying commodity based items that Ben is inflating, I will be buying cheap stocks in foreign countries that Ben is inflating, and I will buy good charts and/or very cheap domestic stocks. If I were truly shrewd I'd be buying credit card companies, REITs, and clothing stocks hand over fist... but I'm not that cool. I'll then chew on a mustard seed for good measure as I laugh at bloggers who talk about the real economy. I'll look wistfully at secondary offerings wishing I too can be diluted to the tune of 20, 30, 40% and call it healthy.
However, below the blue line (S&P 880), and most certainly below the red (S&P 845), I'll turn back to a rationale human.
p.s. watch the 3 horsemen of momo mutual fund buying - Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) at 200 day moving average, Google (GOOG) at 20 day.