Bookkeeping: Stopped Out of 60% of Atheros Communications (ATHR)

 @ibtimes
on January 22 2010 1:20 PM

It's quite interesting how a market that is only a few % points away from 16 month highs is causing so much damage in individual stocks.  Atheros Communications (ATHR) actually is holding up much better than a lot of other stocks we either own or I have on various watch lists.  However, I did not want to give away all our profits on this one so I had a quite tight stop just under $34.00 which I noticed today hit yesterday - part of the avalanche of orders from Thursday.  This reduced our stake by 60%.  Unfortunately, we are in a spot here similar to much of the past 2.5 years where almost everything moves together en masse; our student body trading situation is back.  Hence very little is being spared although some stocks seem quite exhausted to the downside after taking traumatic damage in just 3 days.

Atheros is far better off than most of the other charts I am looking at, so if the S&P 500 can regain support by the end of the day, it might be able to bounce... but right now the charts are taking a back seat to the overall market so their usefulness is degraded.

There are some dead cat bounces happening as we speak, especially in the blind sided weak dollar plays but if 1995-2007 rules are in play, these oversold bounces should simply lead to excellent shorting opportunities.  If 2009 rules are in play, the oversold bounces turn directly into V shaped recoveries.  I don't know what the 2010 playbook is yet so we're more observors right now; what happened repeatedly in 2009 should not occur but once in a blue moon, but almost every month we saw moon shoots after any sharp selloff.  Leading many to question who is behind the curtain...

Last factor to consider, it's almost become expected for a mass of buying on the first day of every week - the last 3 months are full of Monday happiness.  Will people position for that in Pavlov fashion?  Either way I am not going to get excited by any mechanical bounce in the S&P 500 unless we are back over S&P 1130... there might be some quick in/out action for traders with shorter time frames however.  Lots of new things to assess this weekend.

Long Atheros Communications in fund; no personal position

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