The early-morning national radar is showing three areas of showers and thunderstorms to talk about. One area is located over eastern VA and the Chesapeake Bay--- it is raining here in Richmond VA-- the second area of heavy showers and storms is a real thunderstorm clusters in the classic sense located over central KS... and the third area is another thunderstorm cluster over southwest Manitoba and much of central ND.

The morning weather map features one area of low pressure along the southeast coast of NC... a stalled front across eastern Canada and the stronger cold front moving through Manitoba and the Upper Plains. There are some change to talk about on the weather models this morning but most of these changes occur in the 11-15 day time frame. All models continue to show that this large upper low is going to drop into the upper Plains this weekend then meander across the central Plains and Midwest for most of the 6 to 10 day. So that portion of the forecast remains unchanged. This feature will bring generally cloudy skies and cool conditions with regard to daytime max temperatures and often on scattered showers mainly over the eastern plains and the WCB. However by day 10 the weather models go on all different directions.

BY day 10... SEPT 18... The Canadian weather model develops another large upper Low that appears to be stronger and has a lot more cold air associate with it... that hints at the possibility of seeing a frost over the upper Plains. The 0z GFS repeats the pattern by developing a new Upper Low over the Midwest in the 11-15 day while the European model at day 10 Opens up the closed Midwest Upper Low into a has a moderate sized trough that moves through the ECB and East Coast.

Of these three different solutions for the 11-15 day the only Models which actually match their own ensemble is the European Model which is the coldest of the three possible solutions. This model is showing a fairly strong ridge over the West Coast and a moderate sized trough over the eastern third of the US. Right now this trough does not will deep enough to bring about a frost of the Midwest but it is definitely colder than what the data was showing yesterday. It's going to have to be something to watch year over the next several days.


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            When everyone is thinking the  same  ... then someone  isn't  thinking --- George S Patton