Daily Winners and Losers

British_Pound_At_Risk_New_Zealand_Dollar_Rebound_To_Be_Short-Live_body_ScreenShot003.png,

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

GBPUSD

1.6012

1.6028

1.5822

183

206

British_Pound_At_Risk_New_Zealand_Dollar_Rebound_To_Be_Short-Live_body_ScreenShot001.png,

The British Pound pared the string of losses from the previous week, with the exchange rate advancing to a high of 1.6028, but the sterling may come under pressure over the next 24 hours of trading as the economic docket is expected to reinforce a weakened outlook for future growth. The GBP/USD is 180+ points higher on the day after moving 138% of its average true range, and the bullish momentum behind today's move may gather pace going into the Asian trade as the relative strength index pushes deep into overbought territory. However, we are likely to get a small correction in the pound-dollar once the 30-minute RSI falls back below 70, and there could be a sharp selloff following the event risks scheduled for Tuesday as growth in the U.K. wanes. In turn, the GBP/USD may consolidate going into February, but hawkish comments from the Bank of England should help to prop up the sterling as investors speculate the central bank to gradually normalize monetary policy later this year.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

January High

1.6059

20-Day SMA

1.5801

100-Day SMA

1.5779

Daily RSI

60

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

7:00

MED

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

-0.5%

0.4%

7:00

MED

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

-1.0%

0.4%

9:30

MED

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN)

57.9

58.3

9:30

MED

Mortgage Approvals (DEC)

47.0K

48.0K

9:30

MED

Net Consumer Credit (DEC)

0.0B

-0.1B

9:30

MED

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC)

0.5B

0.8B

9:30

LOW

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (DEC)

--

-0.8%

9:30

LOW

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)

--

-1.4%

9:30

LOW

M4 Money Supply ex OFCs (Annualised) (3M) (DEC)

--

3.5%

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZDUSD

0.7736

0.7743

0.7685

23

58

British_Pound_At_Risk_New_Zealand_Dollar_Rebound_To_Be_Short-Live_body_ScreenShot002.png,

The New Zealand dollar lagged behind its major counterparts on Monday, and the high-yielding currency may continue to tread water going into February as it maintains the downward trend from back in November. The NZD/USD is 20+pips higher from the open after moving 70% of its daily ATR, but the rebound in the exchange rate is likely to be short-lived as it fails to retrace the overnight decline. In turn, we should see the kiwi-dollar work its way back towards support around 0.7500 next month as the near-term rally tapers off ahead of 0.7800. However, as investors raise their appetite for risk, the high-yielding currency may hold steady going into the Asian trade, and the exchange rate could hold above the 240-SMA at 0.7694 over the next 24 hours of trading as market sentiment continues to dictate price action in the foreign exchange market.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

10-Day SMA

0.7675

20-Day SMA

0.7656

50-Day SMA

0.7579

100-Day SMA

0.7565

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

21:45

MED

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

1.0%

21:45

LOW

Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)

0.5%

0.6%

21:45

LOW

Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

0.5%

2:00

LOW

ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)

--

2.0%

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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@fxcm.com

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