We were in front of this latest downdraft and also correct in my bullish projections for Gold at the same time. Gold has hit 1210, the SPY has hit sub 113, which was the initial area for a minimum bottom. We have to put aside some of the computer related problems and look at around 110-111 as the recent bottoming areas on the SPY ETF.
I'm looking again for the SPY to work it's way down to 94-97 and probably over 4-5 months from mid April. My projections are for a bottom on or around September 15th, plus minus a few days. There are trading opportunities during this 5 month correction in this bull market, so it does not mean one has to be 100% in cash. However, mutual fund investors and index investors are best to be on the sidelines for the most part.
Below is my projection for the SPY ETF on a go forward basis. Back in November of 2009 I actually projected 121 on the SPY when it was trading well below that figure for an initial market top. Therefore, my projections now for 94-97 seem reasonable to me using my methodology, with potential to spill within a few points of that 94 bottom to 91-92 ranges on an oversold situation.
David Banister - www.ActiveTradingPartners.com