The Speculative Trader is Bullish Metals

Speculative traders have become Bullish on Gold over the past 7 wks, increasing their net Long position on Gold futures to 7.4-to-1 on 21 February from 7.0-to-1 the week prior and extending a strong up-trend since the 3 January reading of 4.9-to-1.

The 21 February position is in the top 22% of all recorded positions, but is in the bottom 40% since September of 2008, when Gold started its strong rise.

Note: that the median ratio before September of 2008 is 2.5-to-1 and the median ratio of Long-vs-Short is a whopping 8.4-to-1 after September 2008. The median ratio of all recorded positions is 3.3-to-1.

In US Treasuries the speculative trader is Bearish on the Long end of the curve, and Bullish on the Short end. The net Short-to-Long ratio on the 10-yr T-Note stood at 1.3-to-1 last week, up from 1.18-to-1 the prior week, and speculative traders are net Long on 2-yr note futures to the tune of 1.14-to-1, down from last week's reading of 1.65-to-1. The current net Short position on the long end of the curve is the highest since November of 2011, while the current net Long position on the Short end is the lowest since the beginning of January.

Note: the US Fed is buying $400-B in the Long end of the curve and selling $400-B in the Short, and has signaled that it plans to keep interest rates low until Y 2014.

Speculative traders have been net Bearish on the Euro since late August of 2011, with Short bets peaking on 17 January at a short-to-long ratio at 6.6-to-1. The net Short position has fallen over 13% and currently stands at 5.72-to-1.

Speculative traders have raised their Long positions on technology companies. They are net Long on NAS futures to the tune of 3.6-to-1 as of 21 February, + from the prior week's reading of 2.7-to-1. This is in the Top 3% of all positions going back to Y 2011 and the 1st reading over 3.0-to-1 since May 2011.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.