Euro putting in outside day; still unclear whether bullish or bearish. Dollar/Yen gains seen extending back towards 2009 highs. Cable reverses after kissing 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss consolidates above 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad set for close below 100-Day SMA. Australian Dollar looking to test key 78.6% Fib Retrace. New Zealand Dollar breaks above 0.5700 but lacks follow through.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - With the daily studies looking stretched the market could be looking to rollover into Tuesday. A bearish outside day on Monday (contingent on close below 1.3580) would increase the likelihood for a pullback with a break back below 1.3490 ultimately required to confirm. Back above 1.3740 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3890

R3

200-Day SMA

1.3800

R2

1/8 high

1.3740

R1

3/19 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3490

S1

3/23 low

1.3415

S2

3/19 low

1.3390

S3

1/19 high

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Continues to extend gains into Monday after being very well supported ahead of the 50/100-Day SMAs last Thursday. Daily studies show plenty of room to run and we favor additional upside over the coming days back towards and through the recent 2009 trend highs at 99.70. Only below 95.00 gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

98.50

R3

3/12 high

98.00

R2

Figure

97.60

R1

20-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

95.45

S1

3/23 low

94.15

S2

3/20 low

93.55

S3

3/19 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - The recent corrective rally looks to be losing momentum with the pair stalling by key topside resistance at the 100-Day SMA on Monday. The pair has not been above the moving average since August 2008 and the overall structure remains grossly bearish while below. Look for a break back below 1.4395 (Friday's low) to confirm bear trend resumption. A close above the 100-Day will however negate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4750

R3

Mid-Figure

1.4700

R2

78.6% Fib

1.4650

R1

3/19 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4395

S1

3/20 low

1.4305

S2

3/6 high

1.4160

S3

3/19 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1500

R3

Psychological

1.1460

R2

3/19 high

1.1345

R1

3/23 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1200

S1

200-Day SMA

1.1165

S2

3/19 low/50% fib

1.1110

S3

1/16 low

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. A close below the 100-Day SMA on Monday is somewhat concerning and we prefer to stay on the sidelines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2505

R3

3/19 low

1.2450

R2

3/20 high

1.2415

R1

3/23 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2265

S1

61.8% fib

1.2190

S2

3/19 low

1.2130

S3

2/9 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The strong multi-day up-move from 0.6310 back on March 10 continues into Monday with the price easily exceeding the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 high-lows and now approaching the key 78.6% fib retrace by 0.7050. daily studies are overbought and the risks are for a reversal over the coming days. A close above 0.7050 will however directly expose a retest of the 2009 highs at 0.7270. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7145

R3

1/8 high

0.7100

R2

Figure Resistance

0.7050

R1

78.6% Fib

Level

Support

Details

0.6930

S1

3/20 high

0.6865

S2

3/23 low

0.6845

S3

3/20 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - While the latest upside moves have been most impressive, they are still classed as corrective and leave the pair now highly overextended with both the daily stochs and RSI residing in overbought territory. As such, moves above 0.5700 are viewed as an attractive opportunity to establish a playable reversal. It is also worth noting that in cross related price action, Aud/Nzd is quite stretched (oversold) and could be looking to carve out a medium-term higher low by current levels. The overall structure is bullish on the cross and any upside in Aud/Kiwi from here should ultimately weigh on Nzd/Usd. Strategy: SELL @0.5720 FOR A 0.5400 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.5820. Trade recommendation expires on Monday at 5pm EDT if not triggered.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5800

R3

Figure

0.5785

R2

78.6% Fib

0.5760

R1

1/13 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5630

S1

3/20 high

0.5580

S2

3/23 low

0.5500

S3

Figure

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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