Euro putting in outside day; still unclear whether bullish or bearish. Dollar/Yen gains seen extending back towards 2009 highs. Cable reverses after kissing 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss consolidates above 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad set for close below 100-Day SMA. Australian Dollar looking to test key 78.6% Fib Retrace. New Zealand Dollar breaks above 0.5700 but lacks follow through.
EUR/USD - With the daily studies looking stretched the market could be looking to rollover into Tuesday. A bearish outside day on Monday (contingent on close below 1.3580) would increase the likelihood for a pullback with a break back below 1.3490 ultimately required to confirm. Back above 1.3740 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - Continues to extend gains into Monday after being very well supported ahead of the 50/100-Day SMAs last Thursday. Daily studies show plenty of room to run and we favor additional upside over the coming days back towards and through the recent 2009 trend highs at 99.70. Only below 95.00 gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - The recent corrective rally looks to be losing momentum with the pair stalling by key topside resistance at the 100-Day SMA on Monday. The pair has not been above the moving average since August 2008 and the overall structure remains grossly bearish while below. Look for a break back below 1.4395 (Friday's low) to confirm bear trend resumption. A close above the 100-Day will however negate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. A close below the 100-Day SMA on Monday is somewhat concerning and we prefer to stay on the sidelines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
AUD/USD - The strong multi-day up-move from 0.6310 back on March 10 continues into Monday with the price easily exceeding the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 high-lows and now approaching the key 78.6% fib retrace by 0.7050. daily studies are overbought and the risks are for a reversal over the coming days. A close above 0.7050 will however directly expose a retest of the 2009 highs at 0.7270. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - While the latest upside moves have been most impressive, they are still classed as corrective and leave the pair now highly overextended with both the daily stochs and RSI residing in overbought territory. As such, moves above 0.5700 are viewed as an attractive opportunity to establish a playable reversal. It is also worth noting that in cross related price action, Aud/Nzd is quite stretched (oversold) and could be looking to carve out a medium-term higher low by current levels. The overall structure is bullish on the cross and any upside in Aud/Kiwi from here should ultimately weigh on Nzd/Usd. Strategy: SELL @0.5720 FOR A 0.5400 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.5820. Trade recommendation expires on Monday at 5pm EDT if not triggered.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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