Euro short triggered at 1.3635; stops to cost. Dollar/Yen confined to inside day price action. Cable putting in bearish reversal day after struggling above 100-Day SMA.Dollar/Swiss still consolidates by 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad looking to carve medium-term higher low. Australian Dollar starting to reverse course. New Zealand Dollar RSI crossing down from overbought.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - Tuesday's break below 1.3490 has put the pressure back on the downside and although trade remains extremely choppy our short-term bias is for additional setbacks over the coming days. Daily studies are just now rolling over from overbought and show plenty of downside potential. Our initial target comes in by the 10-Day SMA. Only back above 1.3740 negates. Position: SHORT @1.3635 FOR A 1.3310 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP 1.3635.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3740

R3

3/19 high

1.3680

R2

3/24 high

1.3650

R1

3/25 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3420

S1

3/25 low

1.3390

S2

1/19 high

1.3320

S3

10-Day SMA

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - The market is content on consolidating Tuesday's gains with some inside day price action on Wednesday. We retain a mildly bullish outlook but will need to see a break above 98.60 or below 96.90 for clearer directional bias. Back above 98.60 will open a direct retest of the 2009 highs at 99.70 and beyond. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.70

R3

3/5 2009 high

99.00

R2

3/17 high

98.60

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

96.90

S1

3/24 low

95.45

S2

3/23 low

94.15

S3

3/20 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - The pair is struggling to establish above the 100-Day SMA and could be on the verge of a resumption of the broader downtrend following the latest break below Tuesday's low at 1.4545. Daily stochs are well overbought and are just now looking to cross over. The key level to watch below comes in by 1.4395 with a break to confirm bearish resumption and accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4780 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4780

R3

3/24 high

1.4725

R2

3/23 high

1.4620

R1

100-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

1.4420

S1

3/23 low

1.4395

S2

3/20 low

1.4230

S3

3/16 high

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1500

R3

Psychological

1.1460

R2

3/19 high

1.1345

R1

3/23 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1210

S1

200-Day SMA

1.1165

S2

3/19 low/50% fib

1.1110

S3

1/16 low

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2450

R3

3/20 high

1.2415

R2

3/23 high

1.2360

R1

3/25 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2190

S1

3/19 low

1.2130

S2

2/9 low

1.2025

S3

1/28 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and could be looking to roll back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Look for a break below 0.6865 to confirm and accelerate declines. Only back above 0.7095 negates and exposes retest of the 0.7270, 2009 highs. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7145

R3

3/24 high

0.7095

R2

3/24 high

0.7050

R1

3/25 high

Level

Support

Details

0.6905

S1

3/25 low

0.6865

S2

3/23 low

0.6845

S3

3/20 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - We have begun to see the onset of a much needed and healthy corrective pullback following the sharp rally out from 0.4915 back on 10Mar that resulted in 10 consecutive up-days. The daily RSI is looking to cross down from overbought while stochs look to be on the verge of a negative cross. Look for a break below 0.5550 to accelerate the decline over the coming sessions. Only back above 0.5750 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5800

R3

Figure

0.5785

R2

78.6% Fib

0.5750

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5580

S1

3/23 low

0.5550

S2

3/25 low

0.5530

S3

3/20 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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