• Euro confined to inside day ahead of 50-Day SMA
• Dollar/Yen fails above Ichimoku to leave sour taste
• Cable well still very well supported by 50-Day SMA
• Dollar/Swiss locked in mid-range and consolidating
EUR/USD - No real change to our commentary from Monday here. Daily studies have rolled over and the market is in the process of correcting off of the 2009 highs set by 1.4450 in the previous week. The market has broken back below the 10 and 20-Day SMAs thus far and looks poised for deeper setbacks over the coming hours to challenge the 50-Day SMA and rising trend-line support by 1.4080. Any rallies are expected to be well capped ahead of 1.4220, which represents Monday's daily high. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL
USD/JPY - The price action here is killing us today after abandoning our short from 97.00. However, this is how it goes and better to be safe and stay in the game then sorry and out of the game. In our commentary from Monday we wrote....nevertheless, we have seen false breaks above the cloud in the past and will only officially shift our outlook on a break above the medium-term 98.90 lower top. It is really difficult to project where we head from here and will take to the sidelines for now with daily studies giving mixed signals. While a medium-term lower top could indeed now be in place at 97.75 ahead of the next major drop below 91.75, the market could also just be filling the parabolic surge from Friday before once again racing higher to signal an official shift in the trend. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL
GBP/USD - The 50-Day SMA has once again offered itself as a formidable floor with the market stalling out by the moving average on Monday/Tuesday ahead of the latest minor bounce. However, when non technical traders start to focus on the 50-Day SMA, and too much attention is given, there is a tendency for the indicator to be broken. We do not rule out this possibility, with daily studies still showing plenty of room for additional weakness. Below the 50-Day will open an acceleration towards 1.6340. Look for any rallies to now be well capped ahead of 1.6650. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL
USD/CHF - The market has failed to show any decent downside follow through after breaking to fresh 2009 lows by 1.0560 in the previous week. Instead, the familiar range base is more or less intact with the market bouncing back into the 1.0800's thus far to once again put the key 1.1025 range highs in sight. In the interim, we can not offer any directional bias with the market trading in the middle of a choppy range. STRATEGY: SIDELINED FOR NOW; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
Midday Snapshot - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Rates.
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Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)