The US dollar's losing ways continue as the USDCAD trades at a 2009 low. The only pair that offers reversal evidence is the NZDUSD - which should be monitored closely given its incredible advance since March.

Euro / US Dollar

The uptrend is strong and it looks as though the top since the 9/23 high at 1.4850 is a 4th wave correction (which may end up as a triangle as 4th wave often do). 1.4740 is short term support and only a drop below 1.4480 would turn the tide. Notice where I have placed the label for wave iv of C - at 1.3747. The channeling nature of the EURUSD since that time suggests to me that this labeling is correct. An objective is at 1.5185, which meets channel resistance in early November.

British Pound / US Dollar

The GBPUSD has traded below its September low but the decline may have completed 5 waves down from 1.6746. An objective remains 1.5300 (just above the 161.8% extension) but a corrective rally may delay a decline to that level. In any case, a bearish bias is warranted against the line extended from the September and October 8th highs. This line is at 1.6060 today and decreases 41 pips per day. 1.5930 is potential short term resistance.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The AUDUSD reached the midline of its channel and is trading at its highest level since August 2008. Continued divergence with momentum suggests that the decline is in its latter stages. So far, .9100 has held but levels to watch going forward are .9200, .9270, and .9325 (these are former support levels from 2008).

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar


The NZDUSD has reached what was former support from the June 2008 low at .7444. Clearly, the advance is overdone as evidenced by RSI (which is divergent and declined from above overbought). The rally is in its Fibonacci 8th consecutive month. One can make a case that the decline from .7453 is impulsive (which would indicate a reversal). Watch for resistance in the .7370-.7420 zone.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

I wrote Friday that exceeding 90.43 would confirm a short term double bottom. The USDJPY has broken above there as well as the top of a 2 month channel. Short term support is at 89.30/40. Favor the upside against 88.00.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

1.0317, which is the 61.8% extension of 1.3068-1.0782/1.1730, has been reached. 1.0400 is short term resistance and only a rally above 1.0527 would begin to suggest that a bottom is forming. Additional objectives are .9914 and .9444.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

The USDCHF daily wave count warns (and has been warning) of a significant low. A rally above 1.0457/channel resistance would confirm a low. Until then, the USDCHF remains vulnerable. Dropping to a new low (under 1.0180) exposes a measured level at 1.0037.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream.

Contact Jamie at jsaettele@dailyfx.com if you would like to receive his reports via email.