Experts and oddsmakers still resoundingly believe Canelo Alvarez will defeat Miguel Cotto for the WBC and The Ring middleweight championships on Saturday night, but the 25-year-old Mexican’s odds have dipped ever so slightly prior to the showdown at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas.
Since the fight was announced the 10 years younger Alvarez has stood as the betting favorite yet, likely due to the betting public’s wagers over the last few days, his odds of wearing a title belt for the second time of his career have dipped from -300 to -275, according to the latest odds from Bovada.lv.
The veteran Cotto’s chances of retaining his title also improved, but again barely, from +230 to +215.
Bettors appear to be banking on both Alvarez’s youth as well as his punching power. Though a first-round knockout for either fighter ranks as the least likely outcome (Alvarez +5000, Cotto +8000), Alvarez’s chances of wearing down and then dropping Cotto increase as the fight wears on, with a 10th round KO sitting at +2000.
However, despite 32 of Alvarez’s 45 victories coming by way of knockout and 33 of Cotto’s 40 the same way, a decision in favor of Alvarez stands as the most likely outcome at +120 compared to an Alvarez KO or TKO at +275, a decision for Cotto at +375, or a Cotto KO or TKO at +450.
Yet Cotto’s barely an underdog in this bout and he’s faced difficult opponents in their heart of their primes before. Still the only Puerto Rican fighter to claim titles in four different weight classes, Cotto nearly went the distance with Manny Pacquiao and he gave Floyd Mayweather one of the most difficult bouts in his undefeated career.
Though he fell to American Austin Trout via a 12-round decision after losing to Mayweather, Cotto’s also responded with three straight victories with two TKO’s and the retirement of Argentina’s Sergio Martinez in the 10th round.
Cotto’s also taken on a much calmer demeanor than fight fans have seen over the years. Taking on former training foe Freddie Roach to prepare him for Alvarez, Cotto told the Los Angeles Times he’s confident he can beat Alvarez.
"As soon as I got to L.A., I put more discipline into myself and things run better for us," Cotto said. "I have no doubt about that what we've done in seven weeks in L.A. is going to be the key to victory. We are going to apply our plan the best way possible."
Latest Odds: Alavarez -275, Cotto +215 via Bovada.lv, and check out the full round-by-round props.