After briefly testing the 50% retrace of the January sell-off at 159.41, following the FOMC's 50 basis point rate cut EURJPY reversed hard off the highs to sell-off over 150 pips and posted a bearish divergence bar, in line with the trends on the longer-term time frames. Despite earlier rallies this week on the shorterâ€“term time frames, EURJPY respected its intermediate and long-term trends on the daily chart today by reestablishing some downside momentum. The S&P 500 futures, which this pair follows closely, also sold off hard, and I found it telling that the intermediate-term trend on the 240-minute chart never shifted to higher despite the recent rally. That determinate was likely enough to keep traders on the fence, which contributed to them jumping to the short side so quickly today. Easier to jump off the fence than over the fence.
USDJPY respected the down trend on the daily chart also, after shrugging off a weak rally immediately following the FOMC release. USDJPY rallied much less than the other carry pairs in the days leading up to today's news release which tells me that this market is still the leader to the downside. Despite what the fundamentals tell us about a weakening Japanese economy, the rally in Yen is still very much intact. Continued weakness in USDJPY will put the BOJ on alert as to supporting this market on re-tests of 105.
EUR jumped higher on the U.S. rate decision, but stalled out at the January highs at approximately 149.20. The immediate trend on the daily chart for this pair is sideways, and sideways to technicians means flip a coin for direction. Fundamentally the long-term bull in Euro looks justified with falling rates in the U.S. and a steady rate in Europe.
GBP stalled just ahead of 200.00 following the FOMC release, and sold off slightly to post a doji candle, which looks to support the overall down trend on the daily chart.
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